Donald Trump: Interview, Dec 8, 2024
Polymarket What will Trump say during NBC interview?
Markets
20 words · 11 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Yes | 65%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Border 5+ times | Yes | 53%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 3+ times | Yes | 49%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hunter | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pete Hegseth | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tax 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kamala | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Elon | No | 69%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 54%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Day One | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Matt Gaetz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taiwan | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| DOGE | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tesla | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | No | 11%n=49 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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