Donald Trump: Speech, Mar 13, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the Justice Department speech?
Markets
25 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pam / Bondi | Yes | 59%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hunter / Biden | Yes | 53%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Antifa / Anti-fa / Anti-fascist | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Civil rights | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Crime | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Judge | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Justice | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kash / Patel | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Law and order | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Police | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Weapon / Weaponization | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Death penalty | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Golden Age | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pardon | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Clean house | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| FISA court | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insurrection | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jeff / Sessions | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| National Security | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Prison reform | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sanctuary | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bill / Barr | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Martial law | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lawfare | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTJUSTICEMENTION-25MAR13 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP