Will Zohran Mamdani say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “ICE / National Guard” at 7 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 2, 2026 (27%), most recently on Feb 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=26, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Oct 6, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Zohran Mamdani
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 28% · n=26
- Settled
- 7/26 (27%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…cut the Medicaid budget in half. He wants to work closer with ICE. He looks at a program like universal childcare and says that it's…
…the anger that New Yorkers are feeling, it begins with the horrific ICE shooting of Oscar Belgal on Thursday afternoon. Again, this is a shooting…
…everyone. Around 4 p.m. this afternoon, a New Yorker was shot by ICE agents in Marble Hill. Many of the facts surrounding this shooting are…
Every settled listing
newest first · 27 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 27, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 27, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 20, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 19, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 16, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 12, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | 0 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jan 12, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 5, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 2, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Zohran Mamdani say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Zohran Mamdani said “ICE / National Guard” at 7 of 26 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 2, 2026 (27%), most recently on Feb 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Zohran Mamdani says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=26). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Zohran Mamdani: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/zohran-mamdani/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=zohran-mamdani&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP