Zohran Mamdani: Remarks, Jan 25, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his next announcement?
Markets
12 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 54%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Hochul / Governor | Yes | 37%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Emergency | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Inside / Indoors | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NYPD / FDNY | Yes | 28%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Plow / Plowing | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Remote | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Snow Day | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 62%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 24%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Crisis | No | 24%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Blizzard | No | 21%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26FEB18 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP