Zohran Mamdani: Press conference, Feb 4, 2026
Kalshi What will Mamdani say during his Press Conference?
Markets
16 words · 13 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home / Housing | Yes | 77%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Five Borough | Yes | 61%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Safe / Safer / Safety | Yes | 60%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Snow | Yes | 56%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Yes | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Trash / Garbage | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Budget / Deficit | Yes | 42%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 39%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| NYPD | Yes | 37%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Trump / President | Yes | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | Yes | 34%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Hochul / Governor | Yes | 31%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Yes | 27%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Adams / Previous Administration | No | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Freeze / Freezing | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Cleanup / Clean Up | No | 34%n=7 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:05 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXMAMDANIMENTION-26FEB26 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP