# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_week by 2026-01-18 (settled) · 42 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN19 · P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-january-18 · as_of 2026-10-24T00:37:09Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-01-18 · tn/th blank: no transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1 · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAY-26JAN19 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Jan 19, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-this-week-january-18 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
# coverage no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-20T23:46:28Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# rows 1-27 of 42 by p · more: offset=27 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	lower_bound
Mental Institution	mental institution	KP	11	10	0.91	nYYYYYYYYY	0.81	hist	0	0	yes	1
New York	new york	K	24	16	0.67	YnYYYYYYYY	0.78	hist	0	0	yes	1
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	K	39	26	0.67	nYYnYYYnYY	0.75	hist	0	0	yes	1
IQ	iq	K	15	9	0.6	nnYnYYYYYY	0.73	hist	0	0	no	1
Rigged Election / Stolen Election	rigged election|stolen election	K	12	9	0.75	nYnYYYYnYY	0.7	hist	0	0	yes	1
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	K	34	21	0.62	nYYYYnnnnY	0.68	hist	0	0	no	1
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	P	37	26	0.7	YYYYnYYnnY	0.67	hist	0	0	yes	1
Melania	melania	K	30	17	0.57	YYYYYYYnnn	0.65	hist	0	0	no	1
Thug	thug	K	13	9	0.69	YnYYnnYnYY	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Fake News	fake new	K	50	26	0.52	YYYYnnnYnn	0.64	hist	0	0	yes	1
Autopen / Auto Pen	auto pen|autopen	K	20	12	0.6	YnYYnYYnnY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Olympics	olympic	K	20	10	0.5	nnYYYnYYnY	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Somalia / Somali / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	K	15	7	0.47	YYnnYYnnnn	0.62	hist	0	0	yes	1
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	K	39	26	0.67	YYYYnnYYnn	0.57	hist	0	0	no	1
Helicopter	helicopter	P	1	1	1	Y	0.56	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stupid person	stupid person	P	3	2	0.67	nYY	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Predict / Prediction	predict|prediction	K	20	11	0.55	YYnYYYYnnn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome	tds|trump derangement syndrome	K	12	6	0.5	YYnnnYYYnn	0.55	hist	0	0	no	1
Fat	fat	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Maduro	maduro	KP	44	15	0.34	nnnYYYYYnn	0.55	hist	0	0	yes	1
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	K	39	21	0.54	YnnYYYYnYY	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Newscum	newscum	K	30	15	0.5	YnnnnnYYYY	0.54	hist	0	0	yes	1
Transgender	transgender	KP	54	25	0.46	YnnnnnnYYn	0.52	hist	0	0	yes	1
Who are you with / Where are you from	where are you from|who are you with	K	2	1	0.5	nY	0.51	hist	0	0	yes	1
Stimulus / Dividend	dividend|stimulus	K	11	4	0.36	nnnnnYnYYY	0.51	hist	0	0	no	1
Ass	ass	P	5	2	0.4	nnYYn	0.49	hist	0	0	yes	1
Low-IQ	low iq	P	6	2	0.33	YnnnnY	0.45	hist	0	0	no	1