JD Vance: Remarks, May 14, 2026
Kalshi What will JD Vance say during his remarks in Maine?
Polymarket What will JD Vance say during remarks in Bangor?
Markets
49 words · 19 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 63%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 60%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Yes | 60%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 56%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Trump 5+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Yes | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Taxpayer | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Autism | Yes | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 48%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| California | Yes | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Criminal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fix | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 4+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hardworking | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Lobster | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 21%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 68%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 50%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China | No | 49%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 49%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Abuse | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Decolonize | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Framework | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mitigate | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Paradigm | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Table | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Undocumented | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Welfare | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Graham / Platner | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SAVE Act / SAVE America | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 36%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Working class | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bilateral | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Bipartisan | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Ukraine | No | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ID / Identification | No | 24%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Free Speech / Freedom of Speech | No | 23%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 21%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 21%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 19%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | 16%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 13%n=24 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
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