Will JD Vance say “Fraud” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fraud” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 14, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Fraud 3+ times
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…up by 7.5 percent, and that effort was obviously led by our anti-fraud task force, because so many of these people were engaged in effectively…
…been doing, the great work our team has been doing on the anti-fraud task force where we have caught just in the last couple of…
…of what Karoline said about what we're doing to combat the rampant fraud that exists in our immigration system thanks to failed politicians and thanks…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Fraud 3+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Fraud 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Fraud” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Fraud 3+ times” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Fraud 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/fraud-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=fraud%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP