Will JD Vance say “Criminal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Criminal” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 14, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Criminal
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…decisions, and the Biden administration was treating them like they were convicted criminals. We're not doing that. We're taking things in a much different direction.…
…we've identified and stopped. We've also started investigating some of the fraudulent criminal activity and also prosecuting some of the fraudulent criminal activities. So the…
…rights. What are ICE officers are doing is deporting the millions of criminal aliens that were let in during the Biden administration. So number one,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 2026 | Criminal |  Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Criminal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Criminal” at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Criminal” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Criminal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/criminal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=criminal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP