Will JD Vance say “Autism”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Autism” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Autism
- Probability
- 55% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Autism”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Autism” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 24, 2025 (67%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Autism” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Autism’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/autism (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=autism · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP