Will JD Vance say “Charlie / Kirk”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Charlie / Kirk” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (80%), most recently on Sep 9, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Charlie / Kirk
- Probability
- 59% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 1 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…this. So, you talked about Pete Davidson who said something bad about Charlie Kirk. Charlie was a very, very dear friend, but more importantly than…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | Yes |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 26, 2026 | Charlie / Kirk | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Charlie / Kirk | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Charlie / Kirk”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Charlie / Kirk” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (80%), most recently on Sep 9, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Charlie / Kirk” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Charlie / Kirk’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/charlie-or-kirk (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=charlie%20%2F%20kirk · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP