Will JD Vance say “Tax on Tips”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Tax on Tips” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 73¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Tax on Tips
- Probability
- 38% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 0 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | Tax on Tips |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Tax on Tips | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Tax on Tips | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Tax on Tips | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Tax on Tips”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Tax on Tips” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (25%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Tax on Tips” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Tax on Tips’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/tax-on-tip (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=tax%20on%20tip · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP