Will JD Vance say “Immigration”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Immigration” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Sep 24, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 48% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Immigration
- Probability
- 48% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…of months billions upon billions of dollars of fraud in our hospice system, in our Medicaid system and our Medicare system and our immigration system.
…what we're doing to combat the rampant fraud that exists in our immigration system thanks to failed politicians and thanks to people who allowed the…
…there are various ways in which the Biden administration waved away illegal immigration status. They gave parolees, they gave asylum claims to people who weren't…
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2025 | Immigration |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Immigration | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Immigration | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Immigration”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, JD Vance said “Immigration” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (67%), most recently on Sep 24, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Immigration” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Immigration’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/immigration (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=immigration · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP