Will JD Vance say “Trade”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Trade” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 33% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Trade
- Probability
- 33% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you noticed the trickle down effect of the tax cuts and the trade policy of the president having a positive effect on US manufacturing? And…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…that, again, is why I go back to this -- this fundamental trade that's built into the deal. They need money to do anything. Their…
…person. He has had success in business. He's not making these stock trades himself, and your question imputes that. It doesn't say it exactly, but…
…away a major source of illegal cartel revenue, which is the cocaine trade, the fentanyl trade, other sources of illicit revenue, you actually remove the…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Trade”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance did not say “Trade” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Trade” next time?
- 33%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Trade’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/trade (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=trade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP