# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · next window_month, open until 2026-12-31 · 23 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-27JAN01 · as_of 2026-10-24T14:05:38Z
# scope K named · n/y settled · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-22..2026-10-23 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-27JAN01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump after October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 5 of 31 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window (as of 2026-10-24T14:05:44Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 1 appearance since 2026-10-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-10-24:rally-georgia: the rally video's captions (his turns only) (pending; eta 2026-10-25T06:59:00Z)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	194	121	0.62	YYYnYYYYYY	8	3	0.69	hist	16	16	yes	1	
Whack Job / Wack Job	wack job|whack job	5	5	1	YYYYY	8	0	0.68	hist	0	0	yes		1
Crooked Joe	crooked joe	6	5	0.83	nYYYYY	8	1	0.66	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus	slopadopolous|slopadopolus	2	2	1	YY	8	0	0.65	hist	0	0			
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	9	7	0.78	YYnYYYnYY	8	1	0.65	hist	1	1			
Sleazebag	sleazebag	7	6	0.86	YYYnYYY	8	0	0.64	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	cryin chuck|crying chuck	6	4	0.67	YnnYYY	8	0	0.64	hist	0	0			
Piggy	piggy	6	2	0.33	nnnnYY	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0			
Low IQ	low iq	15	7	0.47	YnYYnnYnYY	8	0	0.59	hist	0	0	yes		1
Pocahontas	pocahonta	28	16	0.57	nnYnnnnYYY	8	0	0.58	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Marjorie Traitor Greene	marjorie traitor greene	8	4	0.5	nYYYnnnY	8	0	0.57	hist	0	0			
Talafreako / Tala Freako	tala freako|talafreako	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.55	hist	8	8	yes	1	
Fake Tapper	fake tapper	1	0	0	n	8	0	0.55	hist	0	0			
Too Late	too late	31	11	0.35	YnYnYnnYnY	8	0	0.54	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Fat Slob	fat slob	6	1	0.17	nnnnYn	8	0	0.53	hist	0	0			
Newscum	newscum	81	45	0.56	YnnnnnnnYY	8	0	0.47	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	17	3	0.18	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0			
Biden Crime Family	biden crime family	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0			
Crazy Bernie	crazy bernie	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	1	0.45	hist	1	1			
Little Communist	little communist	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	0	0.45	hist	0	0			
Rocket Man	rocket man	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	0			
Low Energy	low energy	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	8	0	0.42	hist	0	0			
Crazy Nancy	crazy nancy	0	0			8	0	0.56	prior	0	0