# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · interview 2026-05-30 · 30 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY30 · as_of 2026-10-24T12:49:04Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-30 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY30 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Fox News: My View with Lara Trump , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Nuclear	nuclear	1	152	101	0.66	YYYYYYYYnY	1	1	0.72	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	146	96	0.66	nnYnnnYnYY	1	1	0.67	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	84	47	0.56	nYYnYnYYYY	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Iran (3+ times)	iran#3	3	10	8	0.8	YYnnYYYYYY	1	1	0.65	hist	yes
Deal / Settle	deal|settle	1	7	7	1	YYYYYYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
First Term	first term	1	11	9	0.82	YnYYYYYYYY	1	1	0.61	hist	no
Election	election	1	95	58	0.61	YYnnYYYnYY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	107	61	0.57	YnnYYnYYYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	1	40	21	0.53	nnnnYnYnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
China / Chinese	china|chinese	1	6	5	0.83	YYYnYY	1	1	0.59	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	1	179	114	0.64	nYnnYYnYYY	1	1	0.56	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	1	41	23	0.56	YnnnnYnnnY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	1	15	10	0.67	YYYnYYnYnY	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
250	250	1	25	16	0.64	YYnYYnYnnY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Hormuz	hormuz	1	38	15	0.39	nYYnYnnYYn	1	0	0.52	hist	no
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	1	79	51	0.65	nYnYYYnnnY	1	0	0.5	hist	yes
Pool	pool	1	1	1	1	Y	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	1	131	73	0.56	YYnYnnYnYn	1	1	0.48	hist	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	237	128	0.54	nYnYYYYYYY	1	1	0.48	hist	no
Gold	gold	1	7	3	0.43	YnnYnYn	1	0	0.44	hist	no
UFO / UAP	uap|ufo	1	6	2	0.33	nYYnnn	1	0	0.43	hist	no
UFC	ufc	1	25	10	0.4	YYnnYnnnnn	1	0	0.41	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	155	59	0.38	nnYnnYnYnn	1	1	0.41	hist	no
Fraud	fraud	1	32	12	0.38	YnnYnnnnYY	1	0	0.36	hist	yes
Drone	drone	1	48	12	0.25	YYnnnnYnnn	1	0	0.34	hist	yes
Dust	dust	1	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.34	hist	no
Supreme Court	supreme court	1	48	16	0.33	nnYnYnnnnn	1	1	0.29	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	1	55	12	0.22	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.27	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	379	38	0.1	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.08	hist	no
Knicks	knick	1	0	0			1	0	0.45	prior	no