Will Donald Trump say “Tough Cookie”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tough Cookie” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 28, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 28, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tough Cookie
- Probability
- 44% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 1 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28, 2026 | Tough Cookie |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Tough Cookie | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tough Cookie | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Tough Cookie | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Tough Cookie | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Tough Cookie | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tough Cookie”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tough Cookie” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 28, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 28, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tough Cookie” next time?
- 44%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tough Cookie’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tough-cookie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tough%20cookie · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP