Will Donald Trump say “Deport / Deportation”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deport / Deportation” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 7, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 13¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deport / Deportation
- Probability
- 47% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…interagency partners on law enforcement in cities all across America in mass deportations of illegals who we're proud to have the assets to be able…
…she could also go to jail. You know, they keep talking about deportation. No, she could go to jail. This is just my opinion. I…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | Deport / Deportation |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Deport / Deportation | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Deport / Deportation | Kalshi | No |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Deport / Deportation |  Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deport / Deportation”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deport / Deportation” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 7, 2026 (25%), most recently on Mar 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deport / Deportation” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deport / Deportation’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deport-or-deportation (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deport%20%2F%20deportation · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP