Will Donald Trump say “Golf”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Golf” at 2 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 16, 2024 (20%), most recently on Jun 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Golf
- Probability
- 52% · n=10
- Settled
- 2/10 (20%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…had it. I've had it. I can't do it anymore. What you've done here, I cannot do oceans, sir. I could do a golf barely.
…Barack Hussein Obama would fly to Hawaii to play a round of golf in a 747 spewing old one 35 years. We have a new…
President Trump, you own a lot of golf courses.
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 10 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Golf |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Golf |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Golf | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Golf | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Golf | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Golf | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 5, 2025 | Golf | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Golf | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Golf | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 16, 2024 | Golf | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Golf”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Golf” at 2 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 16, 2024 (20%), most recently on Jun 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Golf” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Golf’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/golf (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=golf · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP