Will Donald Trump say “Israel / Gaza” 7+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Gaza” 7+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (7+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Israel / Gaza 7+ times
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite president?" He said, "Abraham Lincoln." I said,…
On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…we will mark the third anniversary of the October 7th attack in Israel, where terrorists funded by Iran tortured, mutilated and killed 1200 very innocent…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | Israel / Gaza 7+ times |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2025 | Israel / Gaza 7+ times | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Israel / Gaza 7+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Israel / Gaza” 7+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Sep 18, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Israel / Gaza 7+ times” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Israel / Gaza 7+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/gaza-or-israel-7plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=gaza%20%2F%20israel%20%287%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP