# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · remarks 2025-10-18 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT18 · as_of 2026-10-24T21:22:59Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-10-18 · tn/th blank: no remarks transcripts yet · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25OCT18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Bilateral meeting with the President of Ukraine, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
Biden	biden	72	60	0.83	YYnYYYYYYY	0.83	yes
China	china	40	33	0.82	YYYYYnYYYn	0.68	yes
Election	election	16	12	0.75	nYYYnYYYnY	0.66	yes
Democrat	democrat	19	14	0.74	YYYYYYnYnY	0.66	yes
Energy	energy	17	12	0.71	nYYYYYnnYY	0.64	no
Nuclear	nuclear	41	28	0.68	YYnYYYnYnY	0.62	yes
Hottest	hottest	29	18	0.62	YYYYYnnYnn	0.61	no
Israel	israel	40	23	0.57	YnYYYnnYYY	0.56	yes
Iran	iran	25	15	0.6	YYnYYYYnYY	0.54	yes
Middle East	middle east	4	2	0.5	nnYY	0.54	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	18	10	0.56	YYYnYnYnnn	0.52	no
Moscow	moscow	2	1	0.5	nY	0.52	no
National Guard	national guard	14	7	0.5	YnnnnYYnYn	0.48	no
Investment	investment	11	5	0.45	nYYYYnnnnY	0.47	no
Water	water	9	4	0.44	YnnYnnYYn	0.47	no
Tomahawk	tomahawk	0	0			0.47	yes
New York	new york	3	2	0.67	YnY	0.46	no
NATO	nato	32	14	0.44	YYYnnnYYnn	0.45	yes
Dead Country	dead country	4	2	0.5	YnYn	0.44	no
Trillion	trillion	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.41	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	7	5	0.71	YYYYYnn	0.38	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	18	4	0.22	nnYYnnnYnn	0.38	no
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	4	1	0.25	nYnn	0.37	yes
Department of War	department of war	2	0	0	nn	0.32	no
Crimea	crimea	7	1	0.14	nnYnnnn	0.31	no
Oil	oil	18	4	0.22	nnnYYnnnnn	0.19	yes
Drone	drone	16	1	0.06	nnnnnnnnnn	0.18	yes
Sanction	sanction	21	3	0.14	nnnnYnnnnn	0.16	no