Will Donald Trump say “Political Violence”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Political Violence” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (17%), most recently on Sep 21, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 2 press conferences we have transcripts for (Jun 17, 2026 – Jul 8, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Political Violence
- Probability
- 40% · n=6
- Settled
- 1/6 (17%)
- Last 2 press conferences
- said in 0 of 2
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | Political Violence |  Kalshi | No |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | No |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Political Violence |  Polymarket | No |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Political Violence | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Political Violence”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Political Violence” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 21, 2025 (17%), most recently on Sep 21, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Political Violence” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Political Violence’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/political-violence (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=political%20violence · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP