Will Donald Trump say “Deal”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal” at 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Deal
- Probability
- 39% · n=13
- Settled
- 9/13 (69%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…are nicer ways for you to make a living. You want to deal with these maniacs? You can deal if you want, but there are…
…I announced it. I thought it was going to be a big deal. Nobody even covered it. I took a because you know that if…
…successful bipartisan effort to pass the Take It Down Act, a big deal.And it went almost, I think, unanimously through Congress. We are very bipartisan.…
…day, right? You know, somebody said, somebody said that Evander, the real deal, Holyfield is here. Where is Evander? Is here. Oh, look at him.…
…American taxpayers are tired of it. We want Zelenskyy to make a deal. He can make a deal. He could have made a deal two…
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deal |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Deal | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Deal |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Deal | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 8, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 6, 2025 | Deal | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Deal”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Deal” at 9 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 6, 2025 (69%), most recently on Jul 14, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Deal” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Deal’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/deal (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=deal · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP