# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-11-07 · 30 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07 · as_of 2026-10-24T14:33:59Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-11-07 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · same on every row: v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25NOV07 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of America Business Forum, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	thr	n	y	rate	l10	p	res
China	china	1	54	45	0.83	YYYnYYYnYY	0.73	yes
Biden	biden	1	92	72	0.78	YYYnnnnYYY	0.71	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	30	21	0.7	nYYnYnnYYY	0.6	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	53	34	0.64	nnnYYYnnnY	0.6	yes
Border	border	1	56	35	0.62	YYYnnnYYnn	0.6	yes
Election	election	1	27	18	0.67	YnnYYYnnnY	0.59	yes
Hottest	hottest	1	52	30	0.58	YYYnnnnYnn	0.59	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	11	8	0.73	nYYYYYnnYY	0.56	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	6	4	0.67	YYYnnY	0.52	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	16	9	0.56	YnnYYnnnYY	0.52	yes
Russia	russia	1	45	25	0.56	YYnnnnYnnY	0.51	yes
250	250	1	3	2	0.67	YYn	0.5	yes
Tariff (3+ times)	tariff#3	3	8	5	0.62	YYnYYYnn	0.5	yes
Peace	peace	1	19	12	0.63	nnYYnYYYnn	0.49	yes
Investment	investment	1	22	11	0.5	nnYYYnnYYY	0.49	yes
Oil / Gas	gas|oil	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.47	yes
Rare Earth / Mineral	mineral|rare earth	1	13	6	0.46	nYYnnnYYnY	0.47	no
Communist / Communism	communism|communist	1	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.42	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	1	10	4	0.4	nYYYYnnnnn	0.42	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	9	3	0.33	nnYnYYnnn	0.42	no
National Guard	national guard	1	19	8	0.42	YYnYnnnnYn	0.41	no
New York	new york	1	9	4	0.44	YnYnnYnYn	0.4	yes
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	1	37	15	0.41	YnnnnnnnnY	0.36	yes
Washington / White House	washington|white house	1	1	0	0	n	0.36	yes
America First	america first	1	14	6	0.43	YYYnnnnnnn	0.34	yes
Trump	trump	1	12	4	0.33	YnnYnnnnnn	0.34	yes
Chip / Semiconductor	chip|semiconductor	1	2	0	0	nn	0.34	no
Woke	woke	1	26	4	0.15	nYnYnnnnnn	0.26	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	166	15	0.09	nnnnnYYYnn	0.2	yes
Nobel	nobel	1	10	0	0	nnnnnnnnnn	0.2	no