Will Donald Trump say “Washington / White House”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Washington / White House” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 30, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 52% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Washington / White House
- Probability
- 52% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 4 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…me? I come home, get in the building, get in the gorgeous White House that's now fully renovated and beautiful again. Beautiful. And we had…
…lowest level in 125 years since 1900. And when Ashley goes to Washington DC where Joanie has spent a lot of very prosperous years. Great…
…Henry, you got John Baraso, one of the most respected men in Washington, Senator Boy, that's a power group. You have Bernie Marino Furry, a…
…foreign fraudsters and basically scum. Today, I'm pleased to welcome to the White House somebody that I've been hearing about, met quickly, but I tell…
This is now a proper entrance for the White House. It's great, including what we've done. We've totally rebuilt the façade, which is largely falling…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2025 | Washington / White House |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Washington / White House | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Washington / White House”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Washington / White House” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Oct 30, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 5, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Washington / White House” next time?
- 52%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Washington / White House’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/washington-or-white-house (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=washington%20%2F%20white%20house · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP