# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2025-07-15 · 38 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL15 · P p:what-will-trump-say-at-the-energy-and-innovation-summit-on-july-15 · as_of 2026-10-24T18:50:03Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-07-15 · tn/th blank: no keynote transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL15 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit hosted by Senator Dave McCormick at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh originally scheduled for Tuesday, July 15, 2025, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-at-the-energy-and-innovation-summit-on-july-15 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	1	K	22	19	0.86	YYYYYYYYnY	0.63	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	35	27	0.77	YYnnnYYYYY	0.61	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	KP	20	17	0.85	YYYYnYYnYY	0.56	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	19	13	0.68	YYYYnYnYYn	0.51	hist	yes
China 5+ times	china#5	5	P	16	12	0.75	YYYnYYYnYn	0.48	hist	yes
Drill baby drill	drill baby drill	1	P	19	13	0.68	YYYYnYYYYn	0.48	hist	yes
Frack / Fracking	frack|fracking	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.44	hist	no
Fake News	fake new	1	K	17	10	0.59	YnnYnnnYYY	0.44	hist	no
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	K	10	6	0.6	YYYYYnnYnn	0.43	hist	yes
Green new scam	green new scam	1	P	4	2	0.5	nYnY	0.43	hist	yes
Pipeline	pipeline	1	P	7	3	0.43	YnnYYnn	0.42	hist	no
Stargate	stargate	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.42	hist	no
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times	billion|million|trillion#15	15	P	3	1	0.33	nYn	0.4	hist	yes
Energy	energy	1	K	6	4	0.67	nYnYYY	0.39	hist	yes
Chip	chip	1	KP	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	0.38	hist	yes
Elon	elon	1	P	27	16	0.59	YYYnnnnnYn	0.38	hist	no
Rare Earth	rare earth	1	P	2	0	0	nn	0.38	hist	no
Starlink	starlink	1	K	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	0.37	hist	no
Steel	steel	1	K	6	4	0.67	YYYYnn	0.37	hist	yes
Elon / Musk	elon|musk	1	K	13	7	0.54	YnnYYnYnnn	0.37	hist	no
Autopen	autopen	1	K	6	3	0.5	YnYnYn	0.37	hist	yes
Gas	gas	1	K	0	0			0.36	hist	yes
OpenAI	openai	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.34	hist	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	1	K	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.32	hist	no
NVIDIA	nvidia	1	KP	1	0	0	n	0.31	hist	no
Tesla	tesla	1	K	11	3	0.27	YnnYnYnnnn	0.3	hist	no
Spacex	spacex	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.3	hist	no
Investment	investment	1	K	3	1	0.33	nnY	0.29	hist	yes
Artificial Intelligence / AI	ai|artificial intelligence	1	KP	38	9	0.24	nnnnnnnnnn	0.29	hist	yes
Oil	oil	1	K	5	1	0.2	Ynnnn	0.23	hist	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	101	5	0.05	nYnnnnnnnn	0.16	hist	no
Amazon	amazon	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	no
Beautiful coal / Clean coal	beautiful coal|clean coal	1	P	0	0			0.43	prior	yes
Job 7+ times	job#7	7	P	0	0			0.43	prior	yes
Golden	golden	1	K	0	0			0.32	prior	yes
Infrastructure	infrastructure	1	K	0	0			0.32	prior	yes
Meta	meta	1	K	0	0			0.32	prior	no
Microsoft	microsoft	1	K	0	0			0.32	prior	no