Will Donald Trump say “Rare Earth”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Rare Earth” at any of the 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 28% (n=12, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 10 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Rare Earth
- Probability
- 28% · n=12
- Settled
- 0/12 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that money, and we got a very big chunk of land and rare earth and other things, if anybody remembers. Let's see what that amounts…
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rare Earth |  Kalshi | No |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rare Earth | Kalshi | No |
| May 14, 2026 | Rare earth |  Polymarket | No |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Rare Earth | Polymarket | No |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Rare Earth | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Rare Earth | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Rare Earth | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Rare Earth | Polymarket | No |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Rare Earth | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 15, 2025 | Rare Earth | Polymarket | No |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Rare Earth | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 24, 2025 | Rare earth | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Rare Earth”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Rare Earth” at any of the 12 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 24, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Rare Earth” next time?
- 28%, from settlement history (n=12). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Rare Earth’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/rare-earth (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=rare%20earth · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP