Will Donald Trump say “Caucus”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Caucus” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 3, 2025.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Caucus
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…want you to get out and vote. But I kept the Iowa caucuses first in the nation. I did that for you and I did…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2025 | Caucus |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Caucus”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Caucus” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Caucus” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Caucus’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/caucus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=caucus · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP