Will Donald Trump say “Amendment”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Amendment” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 3, 2025.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 21, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Amendment
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…every single thing they're he's going to want to terminate your second amendment. He's going to want to do everything you can do. What the…
defender of the Second Amendment, but now he wants to get rid of it. That's a that's a minor switch, wouldn't you say? I defend…
…wish we would have added that. Let's go change. Let's ask an amendment. I call it the great big beautiful bill. And it's got so…
…because by doing that, they can terminate a thing called your Second Amendment. And uh she wants to do that. The Democrats want to do…
…cannot publish that video. So, it's a direct violation of the First Amendment. And the reason why they're attacking me is because I'm going after…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 3, 2025 | Amendment |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Amendment”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Amendment” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Jul 3, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Amendment” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Amendment’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/amendment (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=amendment · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP