# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · rally 2025-07-03 · 39 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL03 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-iowa-state-fairgrounds-speech-on-july-3 · as_of 2026-10-26T19:35:51Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-07-03 · tn/th blank: no rally transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25JUL03 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of July 3 event at Iowa State Fairgrounds, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-iowa-state-fairgrounds-speech-on-july-3 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at this event.
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	34	26	0.76	YYYnnnYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	1	KP	12	10	0.83	YYYYYYYnYY	0.64	hist	yes
Peace	peace	1	K	8	6	0.75	YnYYYnYY	0.58	hist	yes
Golden Age	golden age	1	K	4	3	0.75	YnYY	0.55	hist	yes
Drill Baby Drill	drill baby drill	1	P	18	13	0.72	YYYYYnYYYY	0.55	hist	no
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	KP	7	5	0.71	YYYYYnn	0.54	hist	yes
Radical	radical	1	K	2	2	1	YY	0.53	hist	yes
Patriot	patriot	1	K	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.53	hist	yes
Trans / Transgender	tran|transgender	1	P	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.53	hist	yes
Nuclear weapon	nuclear weapon	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	yes
Warrior	warrior	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	no
Russia	russia	1	K	20	13	0.65	YYYnnnYnnY	0.51	hist	yes
Autopen	autopen	1	KP	5	3	0.6	YnYnY	0.51	hist	no
Border 5+ times	border#5	5	P	12	8	0.67	nYYYnYnnYY	0.49	hist	yes
Newscum	newscum	1	K	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.48	hist	no
War	war	1	K	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.47	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	15	8	0.53	YYYnnYnnnY	0.46	hist	yes
Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times	billion|million|trillion#15	15	P	2	1	0.5	nY	0.46	hist	no
God / Hell 10+ times	god|hell#10	10	P	0	0			0.46	hist	yes
Obama	obama	1	K	6	3	0.5	YYnnnY	0.45	hist	yes
Farmer	farmer	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.45	hist	yes
Disgrace	disgrace	1	K	0	0			0.45	hist	no
Slavery	slavery	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.44	hist	no
Chuck / Grassley	chuck|grassley	1	K	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
Birthday	birthday	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.4	hist	yes
Woke	woke	1	K	14	1	0.07	nnnnnnnnnn	0.28	hist	yes
Amendment	amendment	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Caucus	caucus	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Corn	corn	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Court	court	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Hawkeye	hawkeye	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Joni / Ernst	ernst|joni	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Kim / Reynolds	kim|reynold	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Leak	leak	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Religion	religion	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Soy	soy	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Washington	washington	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
America / American 35+ times	america|american#35	35	P	0	0			0.46	prior	yes
Midnight / Hammer	hammer|midnight	1	P	0	0			0.46	prior	no