Will Donald Trump say “Nuclear weapon”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear weapon” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 25, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 5, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Nuclear weapon
- Probability
- 51% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
was a road to a nuclear weapon for Iran. It was a horrible deal. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer. You…
…I said we have to go and stop them from having a nuclear weapon. If they had a nuclear weapon, you wouldn't be very comfortable.…
which was a road to a nuclear weapon for Iran. I terminated that was a road to a nuclear weapon. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment…
…it's a small price to pay for not letting Iran have a nuclear weapon. And they will never have a nuclear weapon. That's already --…
…bully no more. From the first day I entered the political arena, I've been unwavering. I will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2025 | Nuclear weapon |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Nuclear weapon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Nuclear weapon | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Nuclear weapon”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Nuclear weapon” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 25, 2025 (100%), most recently on Aug 5, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Nuclear weapon” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Nuclear weapon’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nuclear-weapon (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nuclear%20weapon · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP