# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-04-02 · 48 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR02 · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-tariff-event-on-april-2 · as_of 2026-10-24T19:04:23Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-04-02 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25APR02 ({word} = w of K rows): If President Trump says {word} as part of the Rose Garden tariff speech, including any immediate Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-tariff-event-on-april-2 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
# rows 1-43 of 48 by p · more: offset=43 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
China	china	1	K	12	10	0.83	YYYnYnYYYY	0.65	hist	yes
Biden	biden	1	K	17	12	0.71	YnYnnYYYnY	0.63	hist	yes
America First	america first	1	K	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.57	hist	yes
Mexico	mexico	1	K	6	4	0.67	YYnYYn	0.54	hist	yes
Steel	steel	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.52	hist	yes
Reciprocal	reciprocal	1	K	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	yes
China 3+ times	china#3	3	P	9	6	0.67	YnYYYnYnY	0.51	hist	yes
TSMC	tsmc	1	K	0	0			0.51	hist	yes
Elon	elon	1	P	16	12	0.75	YYYYYnnnYn	0.5	hist	no
Canada	canada	1	K	4	2	0.5	YYnn	0.5	hist	yes
Chip	chip	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.47	hist	yes
Apple	apple	1	P	2	1	0.5	nY	0.45	hist	yes
Korea	korea	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	yes
Taiwan	taiwan	1	K	1	0	0	n	0.45	hist	yes
MAGA / Make America Great Again	maga|make america great again	1	P	0	0			0.45	hist	yes
Ford / GM / Chrysler	chrysler|ford|gm	1	K	0	0			0.44	hist	yes
Hell 3+ times	hell#3	3	P	4	3	0.75	YYnY	0.42	hist	no
Golden Age	golden age	1	K	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.42	hist	yes
Mandate	mandate	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.42	hist	no
Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas	gas|gasoline|natural gas	1	K	0	0			0.42	hist	yes
Tesla	tesla	1	KP	8	3	0.38	nYnnYnYn	0.41	hist	no
Inflation	inflation	1	K	3	1	0.33	Ynn	0.41	hist	yes
Egg	egg	1	K	2	0	0	nn	0.4	hist	yes
Mineral	mineral	1	P	4	2	0.5	YnnY	0.39	hist	yes
TikTok	tiktok	1	P	8	3	0.38	YnYYnnnn	0.38	hist	no
Deficit	deficit	1	P	0	0			0.37	hist	yes
NAFTA	nafta	1	P	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	0.3	hist	yes
Billion 10+ times	billion#10	10	P	4	0	0	nnnn	0.22	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	23	5	0.22	YnnnnnYnnn	0.17	hist	yes
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	1	P	74	2	0.03	nnnnnnnnnn	0.06	hist	no
Aluminum	aluminum	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Carney	carney	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Copper	copper	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
External Revenue Service	external revenue service	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	no
Farm / Farmer	farm|farmer	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Japan	japan	1	KP	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Liberation Day	liberation day	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Rip off / Ripped off	rip off|ripped off	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Trillion	trillion	1	K	0	0			0.47	prior	yes
Electricity	electricity	1	P	0	0			0.36	prior	no
Fantastic job	fantastic job	1	P	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
Farmer	farmer	1	P	0	0			0.36	prior	yes
India	india	1	P	0	0			0.36	prior	yes