Donald Trump: Remarks, Mar 11, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at the Business Roundtable?
Polymarket What will Trump say during Business Roundtable appearance today?
Markets
39 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 60%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Elon | Yes | 54%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | Yes | 54%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| China | Yes | 54%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | Yes | 53%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Mexico | Yes | 51%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Tesla | Yes | 43%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 58%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 58%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | 55%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Lutnick | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Canada | No | 53%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bessent | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel | No | 50%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Wall Street | No | 49%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Million 10+ times | No | 48%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Vladimir / Putin | No | 47%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Energy 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hedge Fund | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Investor | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NVIDIA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Recession | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Shutdown / Shut down | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SP500 / S&P 500 | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Zelenskyy | No | 45%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation 5+ times | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Chip | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| 51st State | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Beautiful 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Canada 3+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Europe 5+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| NAFTA | No | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Billion 10+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 34%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Saudi Arabia | No | 28%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=64 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXBUSINESSROUNDTABLE-25MAR11 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP