Keynote transcript, Jul 15, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks at the Pennsylvania Defense and Innovation Summit in Carlisle, Pennsylvania

At the keynote on Jul 15, 2026, Donald Trump said 33 of the 45 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 38 of 38 checked settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

45 words · 33 settled yes · our count agreed on 38 of 38

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ timesYes3846✓37%n=9 from settlement history–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Yes1313✓57%n=56 from settlement history–
Oil Yes1111✓67%n=107 from settlement history–
Iran 3+ timesYes66✓68%n=35 from settlement history–
Iran / Iranian 3+ timesYes66✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Biden Yes55✓72%n=299 from settlement history–
Submarine Yes55✓52%n=4 from settlement history–
Biden 5+ timesYes55✓49%n=7 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence Yes59✓47%n=195 from settlement history–
Manufacturing Yes57✓40%n=23 from settlement history–
Venezuela Yes44✓71%n=41 from settlement history–
Tariff Yes44✓63%n=201 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes44✓57%n=29 from settlement history–
Boeing Yes44✓49%n=10 from settlement history–
First Term Yes33✓62%n=31 from settlement history–
Hottest Yes33✓58%n=286 from settlement history–
Nuclear Yes22✓70%n=174 from settlement history–
Border Yes22✓54%n=114 from settlement history–
Made in America / Made in the USA Yes22✓52%n=5 from settlement history–
Elon / Musk Yes22✓42%n=52 from settlement history–
Golden Dome Yes23✓23%n=42 from settlement history–
Save America / Save Act Yes11✓62%n=28 from settlement history–
Russia / Russian Yes11✓58%n=14 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli Yes11✓57%n=71 from settlement history–
Tomahawk Yes11✓47%n=8 from settlement history–
NATO Yes11✓45%n=86 from settlement history–
30 or above Yes00–––
35 or above Yes00–––
40 or above Yes00–––
45 or above Yes00–––
50 or above Yes00–––
55 or above Yes00–––
60 or above Yes00–––
Space Force No00✓62%n=24 from settlement history–
Stock Market No00✓58%n=126 from settlement history–
Moon No00✓54%n=18 from settlement history–
Supreme Intelligence / Superior Intelligence No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Warren Buffett No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Peace through Strength No02✓48%n=14 from settlement history–
Spacex No00✓46%n=4 from settlement history–
Shipbuilding No05✓44%n=3 from settlement history–
Drone No01✓44%n=59 from settlement history–
Data Center No00✓42%n=5 from settlement history–
Rebuilt the Military No00✓38%n=4 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓23%n=438 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

362 passages · part 3 of 3

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

General Dynamics President Danny Deep1:10:23

You mentioned Rhoads Industries and that $2.5 billion award. Let me give you a little bit on Rhoads Industries, because it's a great story. This is a multigeneration company with family ownership, and they keep their promises. And now they have 10 years to look forward and add resources. Their workforce will increase by 5x, and they're expanding. And we're doing that all over the State with all of these 1,100 suppliers.

And thank you for your leadership to do that. And we're committed to deliver Virginia class and Columbia, and that's what Rhoads is going to work on. And we don't make aircraft carriers. [ Laughter ]

Sen. McCormick1:11:08

Thank you, Danny.

You know, your administration has been very active—the Secretary, the Secretary of the Navy, your Transportation Secretary in the Philadelphia shipyard.

What is happening there is magical, and we have Michael Coulter here as the CEO of that U.S. operation.

But it is with Hanwha's oversight and leadership, we are bringing next-generation shipbuilding back to the United States, and it's incredibly exciting.

Maybe just give us a quick update on that, Michael.

Hanwha Defense USA, Inc., President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Coulter1:11:37

Thank you, Senator.

President Trump, I want to start by saying thank you to you and your administration for your leadership on revitalizing the defense industrial base and in revitalizing shipbuilding in the United States.

Mr. Secretary, it is the—I have been in aerospace and defense industry for decades. This is the most business-friendly, industry-friendly administration we have ever seen. The access, the dialogue between the Pentagon and all of my colleagues in industry is like nothing we've ever seen. We greatly appreciate it.

Because of that access, the President's leadership, and the demand signal, Mr. President, that you have sent on defense budget, we now have an environment that Senator McCormick has been able to pull together here, where we have defense industry leaning forward; we have private sector, private capital leaning forward. Mr. President, your leadership has led to all of that.

We're very grateful to—for the opportunity to build the radar ships that you announced today. They will be a central part of the—defending the homeland from the missile threats that you have also made a priority.

As you mentioned, sir, our shipyard in Korea puts out about one ship a week. We have a plan to bring that capability to Philadelphia. You know this better than anybody, Mr. President, but ships win battles; shipyards win wars. And we are going to recreate what has been great in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia: home to the Nation, home to the Navy, home to naval shipbuilding with the first frigate.

It is going to be the home to make American shipbuilding great again, and we're very glad to be part of that, sir. Thank you.

Sen. McCormick1:13:16

Thank you, Michael. And was I right? One year—one ship a year 2 years ago, and the goal was to get to 20 ships a year?

Mr. Coulter1:13:24

Yes, sir.

Sen. McCormick1:13:25

Think of it: 1 ship a year to 20 ships a year. That's the path that's happening because of the policies, the emphasis on shipbuilding. We're still not where we need to be, but a huge, huge step forward.

You know, this whole summit also, Mr. President, we have the defense primes here, but we have a lot of emergent technologies. There's 130 booths up here—Pennsylvania companies, AI, drones. It's incredible what we're seeing.

And there's all sorts of capital coming into these emergent technologies in the defense tech space. And we have at the table here two of the really most successful investors in defense tech.

So I'd like to ask them both to comment on that because our future, as the Secretary said, is not just doubling down on the existing primes; although, they play an incredibly important role. It's bringing in new entrants and new technologies and disruptors. And that's what we need for the future.

So Antonio Gracias, who you know well, has been extremely successful in this space. Maybe you could give us a thought, Antonio. And then I'll turn to Thomas Tull.

Valor Equity Partners Founder and Chief Executive Office Antonio Gracias1:14:21

Thank you, Dave. I appreciate it very much. And thank you, Dave, for inviting me.

Mr. President, it's been extraordinary. You know, I've been working in manufacturing and defense tech actually since the mid-nineties, and there's never been an environment like this—you're right, Secretary Hegseth. Never.

We have five companies here today: Anduril, Saronic, Hadrian, General Matter. We— are literally seeing an environment and change at the DOW that is allowing these companies to accelerate and unleashing American entrepreneurship in the defense area. It's truly extraordinary, and I want to thank you.

We needed it as a country for—[ inaudible ]. We also need to defend ourselves. I think about my own children, if they're fighting a war, what they want to have. That's how we decide what to invest in. And clearly, we want this technology.

Thank you. We're very grateful. Thank you.

Sen. McCormick1:15:13

Thank you, Antonio.

Thomas.

TWG Global Cochairman Thomas J. Tull1:15:17

I live here in Pennsylvania, and the atmosphere that you've created, sir, under your leadership—Secretary Hegseth, Senator McCormick—we've invested billions of dollars in defense tech because we know that we need it. We know that we have to—we live in a dangerous world, and we have to defend that, and we have to be leaders.

We've invested in companies like Gecko Robotics here in Pittsburgh. And without the change that you're causing, these things aren't possible.

So I just want to say thank you very much, and it's going to make a massive difference for the next 20 years.

Sen. McCormick1:16:05

You know, Mr. President, one of the things that you talked about constantly on the campaign trail and that I tried to talk about as well and that you've been focused on like a laser is jobs.

And what's happening here in Pennsylvania is that if you go to talk to any manufacturer or any job site, they can't get the skilled workers they need because there's so much new investment and activity going in.

So we need to take advantage of this moment and build the workforce. In Pennsylvania, we have an incredibly skilled workforce. As I said earlier, we have 190,000 people that work in the defense industry. We hope that number is going to double over the next 5 or 10 years.

But one thing I think we can all agree on is, the American dream is going to be pursued and captured by creating these great-paying jobs for the next generation of folks.

And you know, Sean McGarvey, who—I—has become a friend, I called him during the campaign, and he didn't think you or I was going to win. And we bet a steak dinner, and he ended up losing on that steak dinner and has been a great ally in terms of what we need to do for our workforce to be successful.

So Sean, maybe you could say a few words: what you're seeing and what the workforce of the future needs to look like.

North America's Building Trades Unions President Sean McGarvey1:17:20

Well, thank you, Senator, Mr. Secretary, and Mr. President. And the President knows, you know, my business better than I know my business.

We've been in the workforce development business—but when it comes to construction skills—for a hundred-plus years. We have 1,600 training centers across the United States. We spend $3 billion of our own money every year. We don't need any money from anybody in the audience, anybody on the podium, the Federal Government. We've got our own.

We have 21,000 instructors. We have 300,000-plus people in our programs right now—registered apprenticeships—and we can ramp that up to a million.

So we can meet the needs of this industry and the other industries—the tech industry, the power generation industry. But what we need is deals, and we need deals way further up the pipeline when other decisions are being made.

Our members, you know, have historically been just great patriots in this country, whether it was World War I, World War II; entering the Seabees to build the airstrips and the bases across the world; the Manhattan Project; building Oak Ridge, Savannah River, you name it, and still working in those facilities today; all the way up to COVID. When we had to keep hospitals open, build temporary morgues, it was the members of the building trades that stepped up and did it.

So we believe that highly skilled craft workers are a national security issue, and we are prepared to meet any needs necessary right here in Pennsylvania for Senator McCormick or for anybody across this country. And we appreciate the opportunity to do so for our country, Mr. President. Thank you.

Sen. McCormick1:18:55

Thank you, Sean. Thanks for the great support, for everything you've done on our workforce.

Mr. President, I think I might ask the—the Secretary, Dan Driscoll, to make a few remarks and maybe close on that.

I just want to say this has been an extraordinary event in the Army and the Army War College, which you're here—the fourth President in America's history to visit here since the Revolutionary War, the Carlisle arsenal, the Army War College. And the Army's been extraordinary.

So Mr. Secretary, first of all, thank you. Thank you to General Bredenkamp and everybody that made this possible. But maybe give you a word, and I'll close and then turn to the President.

Secretary Driscoll1:19:37

Mr. President, Secretary of War Hegseth, your leadership, what it's fundamentally done for the people in my life every day, the American soldier, is you have unleashed them to do what they joined the Army to do: to be ready to fight and win our Nation's wars. And we had gotten in their way for the last 30 and 40 years. We had not let all of these entrepreneurs come get in the mud with them and help them change what they could use to fight.

And it is because of you, Secretary, and you, Mr. President, that all of the regulatory nonsense has been knocked out of the way. And I think if you talk to any of the soldiers, sir, on your way to the helicopter, what they will tell you is, the last 18 months have looked nothing like most of their careers, and that is because all of you on this stage and everyone out in the audience.

So thank you so much for being here.

Thank you.

Sen. McCormick1:20:26

Mr. President, just let me close with the following remarks. We—I think we're in the middle of an enormous transformation in America that's being led as a result or taking place as a result of your leadership. The industrial—defense industrial base, making sure our military is ready to take on these many challenges we see and evolves in a way that's able to ensure that we are going to remain the greatest military in the world—under your leadership. That's happening.

So thank you for that.

On a personal note, I want to thank you for coming to Pennsylvania. I know it's hard with your amazing schedule, and you've done this twice. You did it last year, did it this year. It is a catalyst for action. It's making huge things happen in Pennsylvania.

Dina and I are so grateful that you're willing to do this for Pennsylvania and for our country. So thank you. We're eternally grateful, and we really appreciate your leadership.

Thank you. Well done.

Sen. McCormick1:21:24

You have the—sir, would you like the final word?

Well, I just want to say thank you all very much. This is an honor that I won't forget, and I appreciate your saying I've been here twice, which is pretty much maxed out: once a year. But I'll be here again next year for you. Thank you.

Sen. McCormick1:21:44

Thank you.

Thank you all very much. Appreciate it.

Sen. McCormick1:21:45

Ladies and gentlemen, the 45th and 47th President of the United States. Thank you.

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