Will JD Vance say “DOJ / Department of Justice”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “DOJ / Department of Justice” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 16, 2026.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
DOJ / Department of Justice
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…going to see, hopefully, is the entire country led by this Department of Justice turning the page on the law fair. What I would like…
…and other fraudsters don't. We have over 1,500 subpoenas that the Department of Justice has issued to get to the heart of the fraud ring.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | DOJ / Department of Justice |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “DOJ / Department of Justice”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “DOJ / Department of Justice” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 16, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “DOJ / Department of Justice” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘DOJ / Department of Justice’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/department-of-justice-or-doj (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=department%20of%20justice%20%2F%20doj · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP