# JD Vance (jd-vance) · interview 2026-05-16 · 32 words · K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY16 · as_of 2026-10-24T02:06:57Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-05-16 · tn/th last 2 transcripts of any kind 2025-10-01..2026-01-08 (under 2 interview transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXVANCEMENTION-26MAY16 ({word} = w of K rows): If JD Vance says {word} as part of Fox News: Saturday in America , then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	34	26	0.76	YnnnYYYYYY	2	2	0.65	hist	yes
American Dream	american dream	20	15	0.75	YYYYnYYYnn	2	0	0.58	hist	no
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	18	13	0.72	YYYnYYYYYn	2	2	0.58	hist	yes
California	california	9	6	0.67	YYYYnnnYY	2	1	0.57	hist	yes
Minnesota / Minneapolis	minneapolis|minnesota	9	7	0.78	YYnYnYYYY	2	1	0.56	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	23	17	0.74	YnYnnYnYYY	2	2	0.56	hist	yes
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	somali|somalia|somalian	12	8	0.67	YYnnYnYYnY	2	1	0.51	hist	yes
Fraud	fraud	18	11	0.61	YnYnnYYYYn	2	1	0.47	hist	yes
Border	border	11	6	0.55	YnYYYYnnnY	2	1	0.47	hist	no
Marco / Rubio	marco|rubio	2	1	0.5	Yn	2	1	0.46	hist	no
Campaign	campaign	3	2	0.67	YYn	2	0	0.44	hist	no
China / Chinese	china|chinese	3	2	0.67	YYn	2	0	0.44	hist	no
Manufacturing	manufacturing	14	8	0.57	nnnYYnYnYn	2	0	0.43	hist	no
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	afford|affordability|affordable	16	8	0.5	nnYYnYnYYY	2	1	0.42	hist	yes
Election	election	12	6	0.5	nYYnYnYnYn	2	0	0.42	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	9	4	0.44	nnnYYYYnn	2	1	0.42	hist	no
Terrorist / Terrorism	terrorism|terrorist	16	6	0.38	nnYnYYnnnn	2	1	0.4	hist	yes
Newsom / Newscum	newscum|newsom	0	0			2	0	0.4	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	17	6	0.35	nnnYnYnnnY	2	1	0.36	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	23	8	0.35	YnnnYnYnYn	2	0	0.34	hist	no
Autism / Autistic	autism|autistic	1	0	0	n	2	0	0.34	hist	yes
SAVE Act / SAVE America	save act|save america	3	1	0.33	Ynn	2	0	0.33	hist	no
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline|oil	4	1	0.25	nnnY	2	0	0.31	hist	no
Learing / Shirley	learing|shirley	0	0			2	0	0.28	hist	yes
Transgender	transgender	3	0	0	nnn	2	0	0.27	hist	no
ID / Identification	id|identification	8	1	0.12	nnnnYnnn	2	0	0.23	hist	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	14	3	0.21	nnnnnnnnnn	2	1	0.21	hist	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	14	2	0.14	nnYnnnnnnn	2	0	0.19	hist	no
America First	america first	19	3	0.16	nnnnnnnnnn	2	0	0.17	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	24	3	0.12	nnnYnnnnnn	2	1	0.16	hist	no
DOJ / Department of Justice	department of justice|doj	0	0			2	1	0.41	prior	yes
Lamborghini	lamborghini	0	0			2	0	0.41	prior	no