Will JD Vance say “Democrat” 12+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” 12+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (12+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Democrat 12+ times
- Probability
- 45% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 2 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you just look back to the last administration, I mean, even the Democrats in the room, and I know you guys, if you're being honest,…
…the way, anybody can apply for it. Republicans can apply for it. Democrats can apply for it. As you know, the President of the United…
…say, as a matter of leadership, and I would appreciate if the Democrats would join me on this, let's be honest about the fact that…
…say a few things, then I'll take a few questions. Number one, Democrats say that they care a lot about lowering healthcare costs, and yet…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Democrat 12+ times |  Polymarket | No |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Democrat 12+ times | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “Democrat 12+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” 12+ times at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 21, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Democrat 12+ times” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Democrat 12+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/democrat-12plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=democrat%20%2812%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP