Will JD Vance say “Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Security” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 2/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
Security
- Probability
- 53% · n=2
- Settled
- 2/2 (100%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 4 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Trump administration and deliver wins for working people: no taxes on Social Security, no taxes on tips, no taxes on overtime. We've seen $19 trillion…
…Iranians and the Gulf Coast coalition together will figure out a proper security framework for the straits in the future. And what I mean by…
…not talking about pulling every single American troop out of Europe. We're talking about shifting some resources around in a way that maximizes American security.
…Department of Justice is going to investigate this. The Department of Homeland Security is already investigating this, but the simple fact is what you see…
…"Shutdowns are harmful to the economy, the American people, and our national security." And even Democrat Senators Cortez Masto and Fetterman acknowledged that their party…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does JD Vance say “Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Security” at 2 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jul 16, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 17, 2025.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “Security” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP