Will Donald Trump say “Tylenol”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tylenol” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (71%), most recently on Nov 6, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tylenol
- Probability
- 42% · n=7
- Settled
- 5/7 (71%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Tylenol |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Tylenol |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Tylenol | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Tylenol | Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 6, 2025 | Tylenol | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Tylenol | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Tylenol | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tylenol”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tylenol” at 5 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 22, 2025 (71%), most recently on Nov 6, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tylenol” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tylenol’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tylenol (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tylenol · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP