Will Donald Trump say “Medicare / Medicaid”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Medicare / Medicaid” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 7/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 7 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Medicare / Medicaid
- Probability
- 54% · n=7
- Settled
- 7/7 (100%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Ferguson. Great job, Andrew, proud of you. Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Dr. Mehmet Oz. Thank you, Oz. and Homeland Security…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Medicare / Medicaid |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Medicare / Medicaid |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Medicare / Medicaid | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Medicare / Medicaid”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Medicare / Medicaid” at 7 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (100%), most recently on Sep 18, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Medicare / Medicaid” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Medicare / Medicaid’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/medicaid-or-medicare (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=medicaid%20%2F%20medicare · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP