# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2026-03-24 · 28 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR24 · as_of 2026-10-24T05:12:21Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-03-24 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 speech transcripts) · same on every row: thr 1, v K, p_src hist · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAR24 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Swearing-In Ceremony for the Secretary of Homeland Security, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	res
Iran	iran	80	53	0.66	YYYYYnYnYY	1	1	0.69	yes
Biden	biden	211	146	0.69	YYYYnnYnYY	1	1	0.68	yes
Mental Institution	mental institution	22	17	0.77	YYYnnYYnnY	1	1	0.64	yes
Tariff	tariff	147	97	0.66	YYYnYYnnnn	1	1	0.62	no
Democrat	democrat	108	74	0.69	nYYYYnYnYY	1	1	0.61	yes
Gas / Gasoline	gas|gasoline	15	10	0.67	YYYYnYYYnn	1	1	0.58	yes
Trump	trump	46	26	0.57	YnYYYYYYYn	1	1	0.58	yes
ID / Identification	id|identification	7	5	0.71	YnnYYYY	1	0	0.57	yes
Save Act / Save America Act	save act|save america act	12	8	0.67	nYYYYnYnnY	1	0	0.56	yes
Hottest	hottest	178	93	0.52	YnnnnnnnnY	1	1	0.55	no
Oil	oil	53	24	0.45	nYYYYnYnnn	1	1	0.55	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	117	49	0.42	nnnnYYnnnn	1	1	0.55	no
Israel / Israeli	israel|israeli	13	8	0.62	nYnYYYYnnY	1	1	0.54	yes
Transgender	transgender	86	49	0.57	YYYYYnYYnY	1	1	0.53	yes
Deal	deal	7	6	0.86	YYnYYYY	1	1	0.52	yes
Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration	obliterate|obliterated|obliteration	13	7	0.54	YnnYYYYYnn	1	1	0.51	yes
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation	negotiate|negotiated|negotiation	5	3	0.6	YnYYn	1	0	0.5	yes
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	61	24	0.39	YYnnnnYnnn	1	1	0.46	no
Radical Left	radical left	56	25	0.45	YnYYnYYnnn	1	1	0.42	yes
National Guard	national guard	30	11	0.37	nnnYnYnnnY	1	1	0.4	no
Excursion	excursion	5	1	0.2	nYnnn	1	0	0.37	no
Deport / Deportation	deport|deportation	3	0	0	nnn	1	0	0.37	yes
Kristi / Noem	kristi|noem	6	2	0.33	YnnYnn	1	1	0.35	no
Hormuz	hormuz	19	5	0.26	YYYnnnYnnn	1	0	0.34	no
Shutdown / Shut Down	shut down|shutdown	74	25	0.34	nnnnYYYnnY	1	1	0.33	yes
Illegal Alien	illegal alien	43	13	0.3	nnnYnnnnnn	1	1	0.28	yes
Ballroom	ballroom	38	10	0.26	YnnnnnnYnn	1	0	0.27	no
Crypto / Bitcoin	bitcoin|crypto	316	30	0.09	nnnnnnnnnn	1	0	0.13	no