# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · presser 2025-08-16 · 30 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG16 · as_of 2026-10-24T07:06:10Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2025-08-16 · tn/th blank: no presser transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-25AUG16 ({word} = w of K rows): If Trump says {word} as part of Press Conference After Trump and Putin's Meeting on August 15 in Alaska, then the market resolves to Yes.
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	44	36	0.82	YYYYYYYYYY	0.66	hist	no
Tariff	tariff	24	21	0.88	nYYnYYYYYY	0.64	hist	no
Energy	energy	13	10	0.77	YYYYnYYYYY	0.55	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	24	16	0.67	YnYYnYYnYn	0.53	hist	no
Election	election	6	5	0.83	YYYYnY	0.5	hist	no
Trade	trade	8	6	0.75	nYYYYYYn	0.49	hist	no
Border	border	21	14	0.67	YYnnnnYYnY	0.49	hist	no
Investment	investment	6	4	0.67	nnYYYY	0.49	hist	no
President Xi	president xi	6	5	0.83	YYYYYn	0.47	hist	no
Autopen	autopen	15	8	0.53	nYYYnnnYYn	0.44	hist	no
Iran	iran	17	9	0.53	nnYnnYnYYY	0.43	hist	no
Dead Country	dead country	0	0			0.41	hist	no
World War	world war	2	1	0.5	nY	0.38	hist	no
Missile	missile	2	1	0.5	nY	0.37	hist	no
Hell	hell	5	2	0.4	nnYYn	0.37	hist	no
Zelenskyy	zelenskyy	13	4	0.31	nnYnnnnnnY	0.35	hist	yes
Gaza / Israel	gaza|israel	0	0			0.35	hist	no
Withdraw / Withdrawal	withdraw|withdrawal	0	0			0.34	hist	no
Ceasefire	ceasefire	14	3	0.21	YnnnnnYYnn	0.33	hist	no
Donbas	donba	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Javelin	javelin	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
Nobel	nobel	1	0	0	n	0.33	hist	no
NATO	nato	16	4	0.25	YnnnYnnYnn	0.32	hist	yes
Kiev / Kyiv	kiev|kyiv	0	0			0.31	hist	no
Crimea	crimea	5	1	0.2	nnYnn	0.3	hist	no
Oil	oil	8	2	0.25	YnnnnnYn	0.29	hist	no
Sanction	sanction	10	2	0.2	nYnnYnnnnn	0.29	hist	no
Rare Earth	rare earth	5	0	0	nnnnn	0.25	hist	no
*EVENT CANCELLED*	event cancelled	0	0			0.35	prior	no
Europe / European	europe|european	0	0			0.35	prior	no