Will Donald Trump say “State of the Union / State of Union”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “State of the Union / State of Union” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 25, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 26, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
State of the Union / State of Union
- Probability
- 55% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | State of the Union / State of Union |  Polymarket | Yes | 5 |
| Mar 12, 2026 | State of the Union / State of Union | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “State of the Union / State of Union”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “State of the Union / State of Union” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Mar 12, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 5, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “State of the Union / State of Union” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘State of the Union / State of Union’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/state-of-the-union-or-state-of-union (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=state%20of%20the%20union%20%2F%20state%20of%20union · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP