Will Jerome Powell say “Restrictive”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Restrictive” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 60% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 8.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Restrictive
- Probability
- 60% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 8 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…right kind of at the high end of neutral or perhaps mildly restrictive. The labor market shows more and more signs of stability, whereas inflation…
…high end of neutral, or you can characterize it as perhaps mildly restrictive, even modestly restrictive. No one knows for sure. But it’s in that…
…hard to look at the incoming data and say that policy’s significantly restrictive at this time. It may be—it may be sort of loosely neutral,…
…our rate—our policy back down to where it’s not—it’s certainly not strongly restrictive at this point. I think it’s sort of in the range of…
…had been holding at a, I would say, “modestly”—other people would say “moderately”—restrictive level, needed to move more in the direction, over time, of neutral.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Restrictive |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | Yes |
| May 15, 2025 | Restrictive | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Restrictive”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Restrictive” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since May 15, 2025 (67%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Restrictive” next time?
- 60%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Restrictive’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/restrictive (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=restrictive · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP