Will Jerome Powell say “Credit”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Credit” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (80%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 68% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Credit
- Probability
- 68% · n=5
- Settled
- 4/5 (80%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…are still spending. And that’s what—that’s what the banks will tell you, credit card companies will tell you. The retail sales numbers that we got…
So, we’re—obviously we watch these things very carefully, credit conditions very carefully. You’re right—you’ve seen rising defaults in subprime credit for some time now, and…
…that kept them going was that we cut so aggressively and provided credit and things like that, and they were able to finance because we…
…finally has. So I would say, you know, if you talk to credit card companies, for example, they will tell you that the consumer is…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Credit”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Credit” at 4 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (80%), most recently on Mar 30, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Credit” next time?
- 68%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Credit’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/credit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=credit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP