Will Jerome Powell say “Obvious”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Obvious” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 23, 2025.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)
Last 10
0/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Export

Copy

API

Open as TSVfor agentsOpen as JSONcolumnar

GET /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=obvious

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Obvious

Probability
– · n=1 (too little history)
Settled
0/1 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, April 29, 2026 · Apr 29, 2026In transcript

…goes down to offset the inflationary effects. So it’s not—the answer isn’t obvious ex ante whether you—whether you should move your rate over because of…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 39:58In transcript

…I mentioned earlier, there are no risk-free paths now. It’s not incredibly obvious what to do. So we have to keep our eye on inflation.…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his Speech? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

Open the appearance

What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 23, 2025ObviousKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Obvious”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Obvious” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Sep 23, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Obvious” next time?
27%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Obvious’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/obvious (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=obvious · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP