Will Jerome Powell say “Projection”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Projection” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 36% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Projection
- Probability
- 36% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in the housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this…
…participant writes down a forecast every quarter, right? The Summary of Economic Projections. And that’s the basis for how we think about the economy. And…
…higher growth next quarter, reflecting the reopening. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this…
…be. It’s—and, again, you’ve seen it in the September Summary of Economic Projections. You’ve seen this in the public remarks of FOMC participants. And now…
…Activity in the housing sector remains weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.6 percent this year and…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2025 | Projection |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Projection | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Projection”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Projection” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 24, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Projection” next time?
- 36%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Projection’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/projection (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=projection · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP