Will Jerome Powell say “Median”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Median” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 17% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.

17%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
Last 10
0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
Streak
not said the last 4 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

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Jerome Powell

Median

Probability
17% · n=4
Settled
0/4 (0%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 5 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, March 18, 2026 · Mar 18, 2026In transcript

…housing sector has remained weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 2.4 percent this year and…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…next quarter, reflecting the reopening. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, October 29, 2025 · Oct 29, 2025In transcript

…that 3 to 4 percent area. You’re there now. You’re above the median number for the Committee. But I think there are people on the…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 1:31In transcript

…the housing sector remains weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent…

Jerome PowellspeakerFOMC press conference, June 18, 2025 · Jun 18, 2025 · 2:00In transcript

In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.4 percent this year and 1.6 percent next year—somewhat slower than projected…

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · settled no

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 5 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 15, 2025MedianKalshiNo
Sep 23, 2025MedianKalshiNo
Aug 24, 2025MedianKalshiNo
May 15, 2025MedianPolymarketNo
May 15, 2025MedianKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Median”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell did not say “Median” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 15, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Median” next time?
17%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Median’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/median (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=median · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP