Will Jerome Powell say “Yield Curve”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Yield Curve” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.

41%from settlement history only · n=3counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
Streak
said last time
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Jerome Powell

Yield Curve

Probability
41% · n=3
Settled
1/3 (33%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

MICHAEL MCKEEreporterFOMC press conference, December 10, 2025 · Dec 10, 2025In transcript

…than when you started cutting back in September of 2024, and the yield curve basically has been steepening. Why do you think that continuing to…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

JENNIFER SCHONBERGERreporterFOMC press conference, September 17, 2025 · Sep 17, 2025 · 47:17In transcript

…think about this part of the mandate when policy choices, like rate cuts or balance sheet reductions, affect the long end of the yield curve?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Jerome Powell say during his acceptance remarks for the JFK Courage Award? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks at Harvard University? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Jerome Powell say during his remarks on George Shultz's economic policy contributions? · not listed

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What will Powell say during the Federal Reserve Open Board Meeting? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his Speech? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Powell say during his speech on October 14? · not listed

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What Will Powell Say During His Speech? · settled no

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What will Jerome Powell say during his speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium? · not listed

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What will Powell say during his speech at Jackson Hole on August 22? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 3 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 15, 2025Yield CurveKalshiYes
Sep 23, 2025Yield CurveKalshiNo
Apr 4, 2025Yield curveKalshiNo

Questions

How often does Jerome Powell say “Yield Curve”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Yield Curve” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 4, 2025 (33%), most recently on Oct 14, 2025.
What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Yield Curve” next time?
41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Yield Curve’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/yield-curve (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=yield%20curve · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP