Will Jerome Powell say “Pandemic”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Pandemic” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (86%), most recently on May 31, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 55% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press conferences; Jun 18, 2025 – Apr 29, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Jerome Powell
Pandemic
- Probability
- 55% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press conferences); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that. I don’t think that anything that happened to create the global pandemic inflation was in any way related to overweighting the employment market. I…
…years, and we’ve actually had—we had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic, and now we have an energy shock of some size and duration.…
…of the macroeconomy is constantly changing. For example, we hadn’t had a pandemic in 100 years. It wasn’t in the model. And we knew it…
…the very, very long expansion that ended with the outbreak of the pandemic, we saw that it was 10 years and 8 months or something…
…even adjusting for quality. So that was not the case during the pandemic, of course. Goods inflation went very high. But we had essentially returned…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown
Kalshi
PolymarketQuestions
- How often does Jerome Powell say “Pandemic”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Jerome Powell said “Pandemic” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2025 (86%), most recently on May 31, 2026.
- What is the probability Jerome Powell says “Pandemic” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Jerome Powell: ‘Pandemic’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed/jerome-powell/words/pandemic (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jerome-powell&word=pandemic · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jerome-powell&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP